# El Niño 2026: India Monsoon Forecast, Drought and Crop Risk

City: Mumbai · Posted: 20 Jun

**Tags:** Business, Startups

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon is forecast to be below normal, at about 90–92% of the long-period average, as a strong El Niño builds in the Pacific.\[1\]\[2\]\[4\]\[10\] Models point to near-normal June rains but growing deficits in July–September, especially over northern and central states, heightening drought, crop-loss, water-stress and food-inflation risks, while parts of the south and northeast may see near-normal rainfall.\[2\]\[5\]\[8\]

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