El Niño 2026: India Monsoon Forecast, Drought and Crop Risk

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon is forecast to be below normal, at about 90–92% of the long-period average, as a strong El Niño builds in the Pacific.[1][2][4][10] Models point to near-normal June rains but growing deficits in July–September, especially over northern and central states, heightening drought, crop-loss, water-stress and food-inflation risks, while parts of the south and northeast may see near-normal rainfall.[2][5][8]